The Voting Rights Act of 1965 was supposed to settle the debate over race, redistricting and representation. Instead, it started new ones. Since the act prohibits states from reducing a minority group ...

Today, FiveThirtyEight is launching our endorsement tracker for the 2024 Republican presidential primary. And while it’s early in the primary season, former President Donald Trump currently has a ...

America’s cities are some of its most solidly Democratic areas — but that doesn’t mean they are solidly liberal. Over the past two years, the mayoral elections in our two biggest cities have boiled ...

Don’t kill me, but tonight feels like the prologue to 2024, from Trump’s speech to the litmus tests on election issues in two high-profile races. But honestly, I’m mostly still trying to wrap my head ...

Includes polls of special elections and runoffs. Excludes polls from pollsters that are banned by FiveThirtyEight, New Hampshire primary polls taken before the Iowa caucuses and other states’ primary ...

Longtime readers of FiveThirtyEight are probably familiar with our pollster ratings: letter grades that we assign to pollsters based on their historical accuracy and transparency. Since 2008, we have ...

The NFL has had quite an eventful year. In fact, the 2022 season has been characterized by a series of controversies that, when taken together, seem like a microcosm of the criticisms and existential ...

Let’s get this out of the way up front: There was a wide gap between the perception of how well polls and data-driven forecasts did in 2022 and the reality of how they did … and the reality is that ...

Partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and ...

Throughout the midterms, I think we saw issues that hadn’t been on many people’s radar matter when those rights looked to be under threat. The Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade played a major role ...

When the new Congress comes into session in January, there will be more Black Republicans serving together on Capitol Hill than at any point since 1877. The number? Five. 1 For years, Republicans have ...

“Incumbency still matters,” said Gbemende Johnson, a professor of political science at the University of Georgia. “On top of that, Kemp now has a record that he can run on, so the conditions are quite ...